
A trend-aware data-driven approach for short-term prediction of ICRF antenna–plasma coupling
Wentao Geng, Donghui Xia, Qihang Jiang, Yulong Deng, Junjie Wu, Lianghui Yang, Yong Hua Ding
The antenna–plasma coupling plays a critical role in the performance of ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) heating systems and can vary rapidly under changing plasma conditions, posing challenges for conventional impedance matching approaches. In this work, a data-driven method is proposed for short-term prediction of ICRF antenna–plasma coupling based on experimental data from the J-TEXT tokamak. The prediction problem is formulated in a residual manner, and a trend-aware learning strategy is introduced to emphasize dominant low-frequency dynamics while suppressing high-frequency fluctuations. Causal preprocessing is applied to ensure compatibility with real-time applications. Two sequence modelling approaches, temporal convolutional networks (TCN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, are employed for evaluation. Both models achieve consistent improvement over a quasi-static baseline across multiple prediction horizons in terms of averaged RMSE, with the largest improvement observed at intermediate time scales. The results indicate that prediction performance is closely related to the temporal characteristics of the coupling signal, where low-frequency-dominated dynamics are more predictable than rapidly varying perturbations. Overall, the proposed approach improves short-term prediction performance while also revealing intrinsic predictability limitations, providing a useful reference for future real-time matching and control strategies.


